Drinda(002865) 交银国际·2025-03-19 09:13Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 72.79, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current price of RMB 58.65 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-recurring performance met expectations, with a significant increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company experienced a 60.9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2023, but a projected decline of 46.7% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [3][15]. - The report highlights a rapid increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 24% of total revenue last year, up 19 percentage points year-on-year, with a peak of 47% in the fourth quarter [7][8]. - The company’s battery cell shipments reached 33.74 GW, a 13% increase year-on-year, with N-type cells making up 92% of the total shipments [7][8]. - Recent policy changes have led to a surge in demand for battery cells, with prices for certain specifications rising significantly, indicating a potential for breakeven in some product lines [7][8]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue is projected to decline to RMB 9,952 million in 2024, before recovering to RMB 10,531 million in 2025 and RMB 14,914 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, with estimates of RMB 165 million, and further growth to RMB 1,696 million by 2026 [3][15]. - The report notes a significant reduction in operating expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses decreasing by 15%, 25%, 35%, and 11% respectively [7][8]. - The company’s average gross margin for battery cells was RMB 0.001 per watt, with a notable improvement in the fourth quarter to RMB 0.007 per watt [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with ongoing projects in Oman and plans for H-share issuance [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining production efficiency and cost control to navigate the challenging market conditions [7][8]. - The company aims to enhance its production efficiency by over 0.5% this year, which is expected to support the mass production of TBC batteries [7][8].