Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, XPeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 41.6% from the current closing price of HKD 95.10 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, and the report is optimistic about the upcoming product cycle in 2024. Although revenue was slightly below expectations, the automotive gross margin was 10.0%, surpassing market expectations of 9-9.5% due to economies of scale and effective cost control [2][8]. - XPeng Motors has guided for Q1 2025 sales of 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles, with March sales expected to be between 31,000 and 33,000 units, reflecting a slight month-over-month increase [2][8]. - The report highlights the anticipated launch of new models, including the G6 and G9, which are expected to improve average selling price (ASP) and gross margins in the second quarter of 2025 [2][8]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 30,676 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The net loss for the same period was RMB 10,376 million [7][16]. - Projections for 2024 estimate revenues to rise to RMB 40,866 million, with a significant year-on-year growth of 33.2%, and a reduced net loss of RMB 5,790 million [7][16]. - The report forecasts a substantial increase in revenue to RMB 86,172 million by 2025, with expectations of turning profitable by 2026 [7][16]. Sales and Production Insights - The report indicates that XPeng Motors sold 60,158 vehicles in Q4 2023, with a total of 141,601 vehicles sold for the entire fiscal year, marking a 34.2% increase year-on-year [9]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in Q4 2023 was RMB 163,000, reflecting a decrease of 15.2% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the high sales volume of the lower-priced M03 model [2][9]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on diversifying its product lineup rather than relying on a single bestseller, with plans to introduce both electric and range-extended models in the second half of 2024 [8]. - XPeng Motors is also advancing its smart driving technology, with plans to launch L3 autonomous driving capabilities in the second half of 2024 and L4 models in 2025 [8].
小鹏汽车-W（09868）：汽车毛利率超预期，看好今年的大产品周期，维持买入