wanhua(600309) 国联民生证券·2025-03-19 11:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was impacted by impairment and expense costs, but long-term growth prospects remain positive [7][14] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 182.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% [4][13] - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 217.2 billion yuan in 2025 and 251.3 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19% and 16% respectively [17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 34.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 31.8% [4][13] - The decline in net profit for Q4 2024 was significant, with a year-on-year drop of 52.8% [4][13] - The company’s main products saw sales volume and revenue growth, but overall gross profit remained stable due to market price fluctuations and raw material costs [14] Market Conditions - The MDI market showed overall improvement in 2024, with average prices for MDI increasing by 9% year-on-year, while TDI prices declined by 20% [15] - Strong export demand and low overseas operating rates contributed to the improved MDI market conditions in Q4 2024 [15] Project Development - The company has successfully launched new projects, including a 200,000-ton POE project and a 48,000-ton citral facility, with further expansions planned [16] - The ongoing construction of the second phase of the POE project is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, which will significantly increase the company's production capacity [16] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.15 yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% over the next three years [17] - The company maintains a strong competitive position in the MDI sector and is transitioning towards a more diversified chemical company [17]