XPENG(XPEV) 光大证券·2025-03-19 12:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on the anticipated sales and margin improvements driven by strong vehicle cycles and ongoing collaborations with major partners [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong overall performance for the year 2024, with revenue increasing by 33.2% year-on-year to 40.87 billion RMB, although slightly below the expected 44.59 billion RMB. The gross margin improved by 12.8 percentage points to 14.3%, and the Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 41.2% to 5.55 billion RMB, compared to the expected 4.78 billion RMB [1][4]. - In Q4 2024, total revenue rose by 23.4% year-on-year and 59.4% quarter-on-quarter to 16.11 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.4%. The Non-GAAP net loss for the quarter was 1.39 billion RMB, a decrease of 21.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.67 billion RMB, reflecting a 20.0% year-on-year increase and a 66.8% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 21.1% year-on-year to 160,000 RMB, while the delivery volume increased by 52% year-on-year to 92,000 units [2]. - The company’s cash reserves increased, with cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately 41.96 billion RMB as of Q4 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to reach a profitability inflection point in 2025, with a strong product lineup including models like Mona M03, G6, G9, P7+, G7, and X9. The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see the delivery of multiple electric and hybrid models [3]. - The report highlights three growth curves for the company: intelligent driving, globalization, and humanoid robots. The company has validated its technology and commercialization capabilities in the intelligent driving market and plans to expand its overseas sales and dealer network significantly [3]. Profitability Forecast - The revised profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are Non-GAAP net profits of approximately 250 million RMB and 7.78 billion RMB, respectively, down from previous estimates of 5.36 billion RMB and 11.53 billion RMB [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a Non-GAAP net profit of approximately 11.39 billion RMB by 2027 [4].