XPENG(XPEV) 光大证券·2025-03-19 12:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on the anticipated sales and margin improvements driven by strong vehicle cycles and ongoing collaborations with major partners [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong overall performance for the year, with a revenue increase of 33.2% year-on-year to 40.87 billion RMB, although slightly below the expected 44.59 billion RMB. The gross margin improved by 12.8 percentage points to 14.3%, and the Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 41.2% to 5.55 billion RMB, compared to the expected 4.78 billion RMB [1][4]. - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 16.11 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59.4%. The gross margin for this quarter was 14.4%, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 1.39 billion RMB, down 21.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 40.87 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.3% and a Non-GAAP net loss of 5.55 billion RMB. Q4 2024 revenue was 16.11 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.4% [1][2][4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 deliveries to be approximately 91,000 to 93,000 units, indicating a strong start to the year [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is set to launch a robust product lineup in 2025, including models like Mona M03, G6, G9, P7+, G7, and X9. The introduction of new electric and hybrid products in the second half of 2025 is anticipated to drive growth [3]. - The company has established a presence in over 30 countries and aims to double its overseas sales and dealer network in 2025, leveraging its new overseas R&D center to enhance AI driving capabilities [3]. Future Outlook - The report projects a turning point in profitability for 2025, with expected Non-GAAP net profits of approximately 248 million RMB, followed by 7.78 billion RMB in 2026 and 11.39 billion RMB in 2027 [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from its strong vehicle cycle and the integration of AI technology, which is anticipated to enhance sales and valuation [4].