NKF(603707) 民生证券·2025-03-19 13:32Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from heparin raw materials to high-end injectable formulations, with a significant increase in the proportion of its formulation business, which accounted for over 70% of revenue in 2023 [1][17]. - The company has established a strong presence in the U.S. market, with over 50 products running and a sales revenue of 1.63 billion yuan in 2023, marking it as one of the largest Chinese pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. high-end formulation market [2][19]. - The heparin raw material business is stabilizing after a period of decline, with a projected mild recovery in 2024, which is expected to positively impact net profit [3][19]. Company Overview - The company is one of the largest global suppliers of heparin raw materials and formulations, with over 80 formulation varieties operating in more than 60 countries [1][10]. - The company has a mature R&D, quality, registration, and sales team in the U.S., leading the domestic industry in ANDA approvals [1][10]. Formulation Business - The formulation business is the main source of revenue and profit for the company, with sales increasing from 762 million yuan in 2019 to 2.77 billion yuan in 2023, representing 70.50% of total revenue [22]. - The company has been actively expanding its domestic market presence through successful bids in national procurement, although sales have faced pressure due to price reductions [24][40]. - The company is also expanding its global footprint, with overseas revenue exceeding 70% of total revenue in 2023, driven by a robust product pipeline and strategic market entry [19][41]. Heparin Raw Material Business - The heparin raw material business has shown a stable production trend, with a slight recovery expected in 2024, which will help mitigate previous losses from inventory write-downs [3][19]. - The company recorded a write-down of 1.24 billion yuan in 2023 due to declining heparin prices, impacting net profit [3][19]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.24 billion yuan, 5.57 billion yuan, and 7.19 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 946 million yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 1.62 billion yuan [4][19]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the formulation business, which will drive overall performance improvements [4][19].