SMIC(00981) 兴业证券·2025-02-23 02:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 15% compared to the relevant market index [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a stable growth in its 12-inch wafer business, with quarterly revenue surpassing 2.207 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.5% [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 is anticipated to exceed guidance, reaching 22.6%, which is higher than the expected range of 18%-20% [3][4]. - The company is optimistic about the impact of national subsidy policies starting January 2025, which are expected to stimulate demand for consumer electronics, particularly smartphones [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue Projections: The total revenue is expected to grow from 11.589 billion by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -13%, 27%, 21%, and 20% respectively [3][4]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline from 493 million in 2024, before recovering to 0.11 in 2023, dropping to 0.13 by 2026 [3][4]. Operational Insights - The company’s 8-inch wafer monthly production is expected to reach 948,000 units in Q4 2024, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.5% [3][4]. - The average selling price (ASP) for products is projected to increase by 6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, although a decline in ASP is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased market supply [3][4]. - Capital expenditures are expected to remain stable in 2025, with depreciation expenses projected to increase by approximately 20% [3][4].