YUYUE MEDICAL(002223) 国联民生证券·2025-02-21 07:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7]. Core Insights - Yuyue Medical, as a leading domestic home medical device platform company, has shown steady growth in performance due to its focus on respiratory oxygen, blood glucose, disinfection control, and home electronic testing. The aging population in China presents a significant market opportunity for home medical devices, and the company is expected to leverage its brand and channel advantages to increase market share domestically and expand its overseas business [4][13][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yuyue Medical was established in 1998 and has developed a strong brand in home medical devices, including wheelchairs, oxygen machines, and blood pressure monitors. The company has expanded its business through acquisitions and has focused on three core growth areas: respiratory, blood glucose, and home POCT [26][27]. - The management team has extensive experience in the home medical device industry, with a stable shareholding structure [27][30]. 2. Market Growth Drivers - The aging population in China is increasing, with projections indicating that by around 2032, the elderly population will exceed 20% of the total population. This demographic shift is expected to drive demand for home medical devices [14][40]. - The domestic market for home medical devices is projected to reach approximately 2,343 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining a double-digit growth rate [14][42]. 3. Business Segments - The respiratory oxygen segment is expected to see continued growth, with the global home respiratory device market projected to reach $5.58 billion by 2025, driven by an increasing prevalence of chronic respiratory diseases [15][46]. - The blood glucose management segment is also growing rapidly, with the number of diabetes patients in China expected to rise, creating a significant market for related medical devices [62]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Yuyue Medical from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 81.59 billion yuan, 93.69 billion yuan, and 106.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.36%, 14.82%, and 14.03% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 20.20 billion yuan, 23.09 billion yuan, and 26.54 billion yuan for the same period [16][19]. - The estimated reasonable stock price based on absolute valuation methods is 46.99 yuan, and the target price is set at 46.07 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [16][19].