XIAOMI(01810) 开源证券·2025-03-19 14:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the industry trends are continuously catalyzing growth, with expectations for core business net profit growth driven by improvements in various business segments and a reduction in losses from new ventures such as automotive [4][6] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been raised from 28.2 billion and 33.3 billion to 38.9 billion and 55.2 billion respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 64.2 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 43%, 42%, and 16% [4][6] - The current stock price of HKD 58.2 corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 35.2, 24.8, and 21.3 for 2025-2027, indicating market recognition of the brand's upward potential and AI capabilities [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 270.97 billion, 365.91 billion, 504.46 billion, 617.19 billion, and 682.59 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.2%, 35.0%, 37.9%, 22.3%, and 10.6% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are: 19.27 billion, 27.24 billion, 38.90 billion, 55.18 billion, and 64.24 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 126.3%, 41.3%, 42.8%, 41.9%, and 16.4% [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.2% in 2023A to 22.3% in 2027E, while the net margin is projected to increase from 7.1% to 9.4% over the same period [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 10.6% in 2023A to 19.2% in 2027E [7]