STO(SZ:002468) Western Securities·2025-02-27 08:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported a strong growth in package volume for January 2025, achieving 2.023 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 11.77% [1] - The single ticket revenue for January 2025 was 2.06 yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.94% but a month-on-month increase of 1.98% [1] - The company expects continued improvement in performance for 2024, forecasting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 950-1,050 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 178.84%-208.19% [2] - The company is positioned to enhance its management and capacity, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating due to its ability to adapt to market changes [2] Summary by Sections January Operational Data - In January 2025, the company achieved a package volume of 2.023 billion, with a growth rate of 11.77% year-on-year, outperforming competitors like YTO Express and Yunda [1] - The single ticket revenue was 2.06 yuan, with a slight month-on-month increase of 1.98% despite a year-on-year decline [1] 2024 Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 950-1,050 million yuan for 2024, with a median estimate of 1 billion yuan, indicating a significant year-on-year growth [2] - The expected package volume for 2024 is 22.73 billion, leading to a projected single ticket net profit of 0.042-0.046 yuan, a substantial increase from 0.019 yuan in 2023 [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 40,924 million yuan in 2023 to 49,685 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 21.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 341 million yuan in 2023 to 1,000 million yuan in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 193.4% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.22 yuan in 2023 to 0.65 yuan in 2024 [3]