HK & CHINA GAS(00003) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-19 15:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited [1] Core Views - The company's core profit is steadily recovering, and growth in green energy is expected [1] - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 55.473 billion for 2024, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while the attributable net profit was HKD 5.712 billion, down 5.9% [5] - The core profit for the year was HKD 59.55 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, aligning with expectations [5] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.23 per share, resulting in a total dividend of HKD 0.35 per share for the year, yielding a dividend rate of 5.31% based on the closing price on March 19 [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million HKD) is projected as follows: - 2023: 56,971 - 2024: 55,473 - 2025E: 55,525 - 2026E: 57,637 - 2027E: 59,285 - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are expected to be: - 2023: -6.5% - 2024: -2.6% - 2025E: 0.1% - 2026E: 3.8% - 2027E: 1.5% [2] - Attributable net profit (in million HKD) is forecasted as: - 2023: 6,070 - 2024: 5,712 - 2025E: 6,131 - 2026E: 6,543 - 2027E: 6,911 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are: - 2023: 15.7% - 2024: -5.9% - 2025E: 7.3% - 2026E: 6.7% - 2027E: 5.6% [2][6] Business Performance Insights - The company has increased gas prices in Hong Kong, leading to stable sales volume and improved profitability, with a slight increase in gas sales volume of 0.1% in 2024 [5] - The mainland business is expected to see both volume and profit growth, with total gas sales projected at 36.36 billion cubic meters in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [5] - The company’s renewable energy business is experiencing significant profit growth, with solar power generation expected to increase by 95% to 1.83 billion kWh in 2024 [5] - The company’s net profit from extended businesses reached HKD 470 million, with contributions from both Hong Kong and mainland markets [5] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20.1 for 2025, 18.8 for 2026, and 17.8 for 2027 [5] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with a focus on steady growth across its various business segments [5]