LIUGONG(000528) 光大证券·2025-03-19 15:21Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [4][15][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a well-established state-owned enterprise in the engineering machinery sector, with a solid industry position and a diverse product line [25][26]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of industry demand driven by equipment upgrades and macroeconomic policies [1][45]. - The rapid electrification of loaders presents substantial growth opportunities for the company's revenue [2][3]. - The company's international expansion and export potential remain strong, with significant growth in overseas revenue [3][41]. - The mixed-ownership reform has injected new growth momentum into the company, broadening its product offerings [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 1958 and has evolved into a major manufacturer of various types of machinery, achieving a revenue of 27.52 billion yuan in 2023, ranking 19th globally and 4th domestically in the engineering machinery sector [25][26]. - The company has a strong market share in the domestic loader market, with 19,000 units sold in 2023 [26]. Growth Logic - Equipment Upgrades: The engineering machinery industry is at a cyclical low, but demand is expected to recover as infrastructure and real estate sectors improve. The company is projected to benefit from this recovery [1][45]. - Loader Electrification: The electrification of loaders is accelerating, with a projected sales growth of 212.1% in 2024. The market size for electric loaders could reach 501.1 billion yuan by 2026 [2][3]. - Export Potential: From 2014 to 2024, China's engineering machinery export value increased from 19.79 billion USD to 52.86 billion USD, with the company achieving 11.46 billion yuan in overseas revenue in 2023, a 41.2% increase [3][41]. - Mixed-Ownership Reform: The reform has improved operational efficiency and expanded product categories, with new business lines expected to contribute significantly to overall performance [4][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.38 billion yuan, 2.12 billion yuan, and 2.74 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 12, and 9 [4][15]. - The revenue growth rate is expected to be 9.83% in 2024, 17.57% in 2025, and 15.14% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in financial performance [5][15].