Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 156.169 billion yuan, a gross profit of 42.163 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.372 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 16.9%, 101.2%, and 95.21% respectively [1][2]. - The increase in profits is primarily driven by rising aluminum prices and a decrease in costs for electrolytic aluminum due to falling prices of coal and prebaked anodes [1]. - The company has significantly increased its dividend payout, with a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, representing a 155.56% increase from the previous year, resulting in a dividend yield of 10% based on the current share price [5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products increased by 1.5% to 5.837 million tons in 2024, while processed product sales surged by 32.1% to 766,000 tons, contributing to revenue and gross profit increases of 8.2% and 53.14% respectively for aluminum alloys [2]. - The average price of aluminum in 2024 is projected to be 19,976 yuan per ton, up 7.2% year-on-year, while the cost of aluminum alloy products is expected to decrease due to lower prices of prebaked anodes [2]. - For alumina, sales volume is expected to reach 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with revenue and gross profit rising by 40.6% and 347.25% respectively, driven by a significant price increase from 2,919 yuan per ton in 2023 to 4,078 yuan per ton in 2024 [3]. Cost and Expense Management - The company has maintained stable expense levels, with investment income from joint ventures increasing to 1.8 billion yuan, up from 1.2 billion yuan in 2023 [4]. - Non-operating impacts, such as impairment provisions and fair value changes, have slightly affected profit levels, but the underlying operational performance remains strong [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has exceeded expectations with its dividend policy, achieving a payout ratio of 63% and a substantial increase in total dividend payments [5].
中国宏桥（01378）：高盈利持续，分红大超预期