wanhua(600309) 国金证券·2025-03-19 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a revenue of 182.069 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 22.49% to 13.975 billion RMB [1][4]. - In Q4, the company reported a revenue of 34.465 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.94 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 2.431 billion RMB [1][2]. - The company is facing challenges due to asset impairment provisions and increased operational costs, but it continues to enhance its global channel layout and improve operational efficiency through digital investments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates revenues of 182.069 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 3.83%, and net profits of 13.975 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 22.49% compared to the previous year [1][7]. - For 2025 and 2026, the expected net profits are 18.983 billion RMB and 20.677 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 35.84% and 8.93% respectively [4][7]. Product Performance - In Q4, the average market price for pure MDI was approximately 18,676 RMB/ton, while the price for polymer MDI was around 18,178 RMB/ton, showing stable demand [3]. - TDI products faced weak demand due to high inventory levels in the home furnishing sector, with an average market price of 12,925 RMB/ton [3]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The company has seen a rise in research and development expenses, as well as increases in sales, management, and financial costs, contributing to the decline in net profit [2][3]. - The average price of key raw materials such as pure benzene and coal has fluctuated, impacting overall profitability [3]. Valuation Metrics - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 6.05 RMB and 6.59 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.35X and 10.42X [4][7].