NKF(603707) 民生证券·2025-03-19 12:23Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is transitioning towards high-end formulations, with a significant increase in the proportion of formulation business, which accounted for over 70% of total revenue in 2023. This shift reflects a successful transformation from a traditional raw material supplier to an international sterile injection enterprise [1][17]. - The company has established a strong presence in the U.S. market, with over 50 products operational and a leading position in ANDA approvals among domestic peers. The U.S. subsidiary generated sales of 1.63 billion yuan in 2023, marking it as one of the largest Chinese pharmaceutical companies engaged in high-end formulation sales in the U.S. [2][19]. - The report forecasts revenue growth driven by overseas formulation business, with projected revenues of 4.24 billion yuan, 5.57 billion yuan, and 7.19 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is one of the largest global suppliers of heparin raw materials and formulations, with over 80 formulation varieties in more than 60 countries. It has been increasing R&D investments to support its transition to high-end formulations [1][10]. Formulation Business - The formulation business is the main source of revenue and profit for the company, with sales increasing from 762 million yuan in 2019 to 2.77 billion yuan in 2023, representing 70.50% of total revenue. The gross profit from this segment also rose significantly during the same period [22][23]. - The company has been actively participating in national procurement, which has helped maintain growth in domestic formulation sales despite some price pressures [24][40]. Heparin Raw Materials - The heparin raw material business has seen a mild recovery, with stable production levels. However, the company faced a significant inventory impairment charge of 1.24 billion yuan in 2023 due to declining prices, which impacted net profit [3][19]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the global heparin market in 2024, with a potential reversal of inventory impairment provisions, which could positively affect net profit [3][19]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a turnaround in profitability, with projected net profits of 946 million yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 1.62 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.59 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 1.00 yuan for the same years [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to high-margin formulation business and its ongoing expansion into international markets, which are expected to drive future growth [17][19].