Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 95.2% [1] - The increase in revenue to 156.17 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, was driven by both volume and price increases across product lines, particularly in alumina [1] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, resulting in a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, reflecting a dividend yield of 10.7% based on the closing price on March 14, 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, with a net profit of 22.37 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from 11.46 billion yuan in 2023 [4] - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached 5.837 million tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of 17,550 yuan per ton, up 6.6% [1] - The alumina sales volume was approximately 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with an average selling price of 3,420 yuan per ton, up 33.6% [1] Market Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to improve from a surplus of 490,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 350,000 tons by 2026 [2] - The report indicates that the price of coal has decreased, which may support profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 22.49 billion yuan and 24.73 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3.2% and 9.8% [3] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 5.9, 5.4, and 4.9 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's leading position in the aluminum industry [3]
中国宏桥：2024年报点评：归母净利润创上市以来新高，高股息强化股东回报-20250320