JEP(SZ:000875) Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-03-03 10:03Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price range of 5.01 to 7.55 CNY per share, and a central value of 6.21 CNY [7]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a coal-based power generation platform to a specialized green hydrogen energy platform under the State Power Investment Corporation, with significant investments in renewable energy and hydrogen projects [5][11]. - The report highlights the expected growth in green hydrogen demand driven by short-term policies and the anticipated price parity by 2030, which will further open market opportunities [5][34]. - The company is actively developing integrated projects for green hydrogen and ammonia production, with expected profitability exceeding initial estimates due to favorable market conditions [5][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition to Green Hydrogen Platform - The company has shifted from a coal power focus to a green hydrogen platform, with a cumulative installed capacity of 330 MW for coal, 347 MW for wind, and 662 MW for solar as of the end of 2023 [5][11]. - The company aims to leverage its renewable energy advantages to reduce production costs in hydrogen generation and enhance green electricity consumption [5][11]. 2. Hydrogen Energy Development - Global hydrogen demand exceeded 97 million tons in 2023, with a significant portion still relying on gray hydrogen due to high production costs [5][34]. - The report estimates that by 2030, the demand for green hydrogen in coal power blending in China, Japan, and South Korea could reach approximately 11 million tons per year [5][34]. - The company is advancing projects for green ammonia and methanol, with the green ammonia project expected to start production by May 2025, projecting a gross margin of 19.90% [5][34]. 3. Renewable Energy Growth - The report indicates that the renewable energy sector is approaching a turning point, with multiple projects under construction that will support future capacity growth [5][34]. - The company has several projects in the pipeline, totaling an installed capacity of 4.6447 million kW, which includes wind, solar, and thermal energy [5][34]. - The company’s coal assets are expected to provide cash flow support for renewable projects and mitigate costs associated with auxiliary services [5][34]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.15 billion CNY, 1.31 billion CNY, and 1.58 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of 26.64%, 13.75%, and 20.99% respectively [6][7]. - The report anticipates an increase in gross margin from 25.75% in 2023 to 29.58% by 2026, reflecting improved operational efficiency [6][7]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a favorable valuation compared to peers, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio decreasing from 20.44 in 2023 to 11.73 by 2026 [6][7].