GTIG(002091) 西南证券·2025-03-04 05:21Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Guotai with a target price of 10.21 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 7.76 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Guotai is a leading foreign trade supply chain service company, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from overseas sales, which accounted for 79% in the first half of 2024. The company has established production bases in countries like Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh, allowing for flexibility in trade and effective avoidance of trade barriers [5][11]. - The company plans to continue expanding its production entities and overseas institutions to enhance its supply chain integration and adapt to global market changes [5][11]. - The financial health of Jiangsu Guotai is strong, with cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately 226.6 billion CNY, which is 1.8 times its current market capitalization. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.15% [5][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiangsu Guotai, established in May 1998, is headquartered in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province. It focuses on supply chain services and chemical new energy, integrating R&D, production, and financial investment [9]. Industry Analysis - The report highlights a rising demand for textile and apparel products in overseas markets, driven by inventory replenishment after previous stock reductions. China's textile and apparel exports are expected to grow, particularly in emerging markets [21][23]. Business Model - Jiangsu Guotai is transitioning from "China supply chain integration" to "global supply chain integration," with a focus on expanding its market presence in the U.S., EU, and Southeast Asia. The company reported a 9% increase in total import and export volume in the first half of 2024 [36]. Financial Highlights - In 2023, the company's total revenue was 371.9 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year. However, the gross profit margin slightly increased due to favorable currency exchange rates. The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend in 2024, reflecting its strong cash position [48][53]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Jiangsu Guotai's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 11.1 billion CNY, 12.4 billion CNY, and 13.5 billion CNY, respectively. The estimated book value per share (BPS) for 2025 is projected to be 10.21 CNY, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.8 [5][64].