TRANSSION(688036) 浦银国际·2025-03-04 08:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Transsion Holdings with a target price of RMB 114.2, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of RMB 97.7 [3][5][9]. Core Insights - Transsion Holdings has shown a positive quarter-over-quarter improvement in revenue and profit for Q4 2024, laying a solid foundation for growth in 2025. The company ranks fourth globally in smartphone shipments with a market share of 8.7% [9][12]. - The growth drivers for 2025 include strong smartphone shipment growth, expansion in digital accessories and energy storage products, and accelerated growth in mobile internet services benefiting from operational leverage [9][12]. - The DCF valuation method estimates a target price of RMB 114.2, with assumptions of a 1.8% risk-free rate and a WACC of 6.1% [15][17]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Transsion Holdings are as follows: - 2023: RMB 62,295 million - 2024E: RMB 68,743 million - 2025E: RMB 78,105 million - 2026E: RMB 89,470 million - 2027E: RMB 100,537 million - The expected revenue growth rates are 34% for 2023, 10% for 2024E, and 14% for 2025E [4][10]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: RMB 5,537 million - 2024E: RMB 5,590 million - 2025E: RMB 6,080 million - 2026E: RMB 7,363 million - 2027E: RMB 8,511 million - The net profit growth rates are 123% for 2023, 1% for 2024E, and 9% for 2025E [4][10]. Q4 2024 Performance - For Q4 2024, Transsion's revenue is expected to reach RMB 17,491 million, a 9% year-over-year decline but a 5% quarter-over-quarter increase. Net profit is projected at RMB 1,687 million, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase and a 60% quarter-over-quarter increase [13][12].