Fuling Zhacai(SZ:002507) Southwest Securities·2025-03-03 08:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fuling Zhacai (002507) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance was slightly below expectations, with a revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. The overall annual revenue for 2024 is projected at 24.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [8][9]. - The decline in Q4 revenue is attributed to weak consumer demand and the traditional off-peak season for pickled vegetables. The company has reduced channel spending and is focusing on inventory clearance and product optimization [8]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company expects revenue growth to stabilize due to increased market penetration of new products and the gradual opening of the catering market [8]. - The cost benefits from low-priced raw materials are expected to continue into the first half of 2025, which will positively impact profitability [8]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 2,449.85 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 2,407.96 million yuan for 2024E, and expected growth to 2,545.82 million yuan in 2025E [3][9]. - The net profit for 2023A was 826.58 million yuan, with a slight decrease to 824.06 million yuan in 2024E, and an increase to 896.06 million yuan in 2025E [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.72 yuan for 2023A, 0.71 yuan for 2024E, and expected to rise to 0.78 yuan in 2025E [3][9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 10.03% in 2023A to 9.09% in 2024E, and further to 8.99% in 2025E [3][9].