PPF(300258) 兴业证券·2025-03-04 05:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by accelerated global expansion, capacity release, and optimization of customer structure, alongside new business development in humanoid robotics [41] - The company’s 2024 performance will be impacted by a decline in sales from major overseas clients, convertible bond expenses, foreign exchange gains, and increased depreciation from capacity investments [4][37] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing domestic and international demand for its products, particularly in the electric vehicle sector and humanoid robotics [41] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,103 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.3%. However, a decline of 3.0% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 25.0% and 19.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 238 million yuan in 2023, decreasing to 165 million yuan in 2024, but recovering to 251 million yuan in 2025 and 312 million yuan in 2026 [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 25.2 in 2023 to 19.2 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [3] Capacity Expansion and Global Layout - The company is accelerating domestic capacity release and overseas expansion, with the Thai factory expected to commence production in Q2 2025, which will enhance profitability due to lower labor costs and pricing advantages [4][37] - The Moroccan factory is identified as a key focus for future overseas capacity, leveraging the country's automotive industry advantages to serve European and North American markets effectively [16][37] Humanoid Robotics Business Development - The company is actively developing core components for humanoid robots, with significant potential for domestic substitution in the planetary gearbox market, driven by supportive national policies and a mature automotive supply chain [39][40] - The global market for planetary gearboxes is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2024 to 2029, indicating a robust demand environment for the company's new product lines [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company’s profitability is likely to recover due to global expansion, capacity release, and optimization of customer structure, with projected net profits of 165 million yuan, 251 million yuan, and 312 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [41]