Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company,阅文集团 (772 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 24.85 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the delay in the 新丽 project impacts the 2024 profit expectations, while growth is anticipated in short dramas and derivative IP businesses [2]. - The company is expected to face a net loss of RMB 150-250 million for 2024, primarily due to non-cash goodwill impairment related to the acquisition of 新丽传媒 [5]. - Revenue expectations for 2024 have been slightly reduced by 1% to RMB 7.7 billion, with online business remaining stable and core IP operations expected to grow by 34% [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in core IP operations, driven by the integration of 腾讯动漫 and the launch of short dramas [5][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2026 are as follows: RMB 7,012 million (2023), RMB 7,695 million (2024E), RMB 7,882 million (2025E), and RMB 8,220 million (2026E), with a projected growth rate of 9.8% in 2024 [3][8][13]. - Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 1,130 million (2023), RMB 1,139 million (2024E), RMB 1,445 million (2025E), and RMB 1,568 million (2026E), with a notable increase of 23.7% in 2025 [3][8][13]. - The report indicates a decrease in the adjusted net profit expectation for 2024 by 18% to RMB 1.1 billion, reflecting a profit margin of 15% [5][8]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a projected adjusted net profit of RMB 1.4 billion for 2025, with a reference to a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for comparable quality content and copyright companies [5][8]. - The target price has been slightly adjusted from HKD 29.00 to HKD 28.00, maintaining a neutral stance on the stock [5][12].
阅文集团（00772）：新丽项目递延影响2024年盈利预期，关注短剧、衍生品等IP业务增长