Nisco(600282) 西部证券·2025-03-12 08:40Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.54 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2025 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.16 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.52 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with EPS projected at 0.35, 0.38, and 0.41 CNY [1][16]. - The report highlights a shift in the steel industry from administrative to market-driven capacity reduction, indicating a turning point in the sector [2][13]. - The company's integrated layout is seen as a key growth driver, focusing on high-end and international markets, which aligns with the industrial development strategy of Nanjing [3][14]. Industry Overview - The steel industry is undergoing a supply-side reform characterized by high-end, green, and intelligent production methods, along with industry consolidation [2][38]. - The report notes that the demand side of the steel industry is under pressure, with economic benefits expected to decline in the first half of 2024 [45]. Company Analysis - The company has a comprehensive industrial layout that enhances its return on equity (ROE) stability while seeking new growth points [3][14]. - The focus on high-end products and international markets is increasing, with a growing share of high-margin export business [3][14]. - The company is positioned as a key player in Nanjing's industrial strategy, likely to receive more policy and resource support [3][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 71.58 billion, 72.42 billion, and 73.74 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of -1.3%, 1.2%, and 1.8% [11][16]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% for net profits from 2024 to 2026, significantly higher than the industry average [16][17].