JD HEALTH(06618) 华泰证券·2025-03-10 06:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Health is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 42.70 [4][7]. Core Views - JD Health's total revenue for 2H24 is projected to be RMB 29.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, which is better than the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 11.2%. The non-IFRS net profit is expected to be RMB 2.1 billion, with a non-IFRS net profit margin of 7.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - For 2025, revenue growth is anticipated to improve to 13.8%, driven by enhancements in instant retail service capabilities and exploration of AI applications in the healthcare sector [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and User Growth - In 2H24, sales revenue from pharmaceuticals and health products increased by 10.7% to RMB 24.9 billion, while platform, advertising, and other service revenues grew by 25.3% to RMB 4.9 billion, primarily due to sustained growth in advertising revenue [2]. - As of the end of 2024, JD Health's annual active user count reached 184 million, with a net increase of approximately 12 million year-on-year [2]. Operational Enhancements - Management plans to enhance fulfillment capabilities in instant retail scenarios in 2025, focusing on optimizing service efficiency and integrating online and offline operations [3]. - JD Health is recognized as a pioneer in the large-scale application of AI models in the internet healthcare sector, with its "Jingyi Qianxun" model being the most widely adopted in the industry [3]. Profitability and Valuation Adjustments - The non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 6.4% and 7.4% to RMB 4.41 billion and RMB 4.69 billion, respectively, due to increased business investments [4][11]. - The target non-IFRS PE valuation for 2025 is set at 28.0x, which is a premium compared to the average PE of comparable companies at 15.2x, reflecting JD Health's higher operational efficiency and first-mover advantage in AI healthcare [4][13].