WLY(000858) 国泰君安·2025-03-19 09:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye (000858.SZ) is "Accumulate" with a target price of 171.54 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Accumulate" [2][14]. Core Views - The report highlights that Wuliangye has been implementing a series of marketing reforms since the 1218 conference, leading to improved management efficiency and execution. The company aims for steady growth through these changes [3][14]. - The marketing transformation is expected to yield results gradually, supporting stable growth. The company has focused on enhancing manufacturer relationships and addressing volume and price issues [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 73,969 million CNY in 2022 to 99,462 million CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7% for 2022-2023 and 5.6% for 2025-2026 [5][15]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 26,690 million CNY in 2022 to 33,599 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 14.2% for 2022-2023 and 3.9% for 2025-2026 [5][15]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 6.88 CNY in 2022 to 8.66 CNY in 2026 [5][15]. Market Data - The current price of Wuliangye shares is 132.69 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 107.69 CNY to 164.05 CNY [6][14]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 515,051 million CNY [6]. Balance Sheet Summary - Shareholder equity stands at 136,362 million CNY, with a net asset value per share of 35.13 CNY [7][15]. - The company has a negative net debt ratio of -89.68%, indicating a strong financial position [7][15]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of price stability through inventory control measures, which have led to a rise in wholesale prices. The company has implemented strategies to enhance channel confidence and manage supply effectively [14]. - The establishment of specialized companies by distributors is expected to strengthen direct sales channels and improve resource allocation, thereby enhancing overall operational efficiency [14].