Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 25.9% year-on-year to USD 3.06 billion for 2024, with a net profit of USD 1.03 billion, reflecting a 93.5% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by the tight supply of vessels and strong demand in the container shipping market [1][5] - The company announced a year-end dividend of HKD 1.4 per share, with an annual payout ratio of 83% [1] - The outlook for 2025 remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in the Asian regional market due to active inter-regional trade and ongoing demand from the red sea detour [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company completed a container volume of 3.57 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with an average container freight rate of USD 721, up 15.7% year-on-year [2] - The company's shipping business saw a decrease in unit costs to USD 463 per TEU, an 8.4% decline year-on-year, attributed to improved loading rates and a higher proportion of owned vessels [3] - The overall gross margin, EBIT margin, and net margin for 2024 were 37.4%, 35.0%, and 33.6%, respectively, showing significant year-on-year improvements [3] Market Outlook - The Asian regional market is expected to be more resilient and growth-oriented compared to the European and American markets, with a projected demand growth of 3.2% for small to medium-sized vessels from 2025 to 2027, while supply growth is only expected to be 1.9% to 0.5% [4] - The company anticipates that the average freight rates for long-term contracts in 2025 will remain stable year-on-year, contributing to a favorable profit outlook [1][5] Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised to USD 1.09 billion, with further projections of USD 910 million for 2026 and USD 1.10 billion for 2027 [5][7] - The target price has been adjusted downwards by 6% to HKD 28.00, reflecting a revised valuation multiple of 8.9x for 2025E PE [5][9]
海丰国际(01308):业绩亮眼,区域市场显韧性和成长性