CMOC(SH:603993) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-11 08:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to stabilize cobalt prices, with a projected supply reduction of approximately 25% globally [1][2]. - The market has two misconceptions regarding the company's sales impact due to the DRC's export ban; the company has sufficient in-transit inventory to benefit from rising cobalt prices in the short term, and the long-term potential for price increases is underestimated [2][3]. - The introduction of a quota system post-ban is anticipated to elevate the cobalt price center, significantly enhancing the company's profit margins [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: DRC Export Ban and Cobalt Price Stabilization - The DRC's decision to halt cobalt exports for four months aims to address the oversupply in the global cobalt market, which has seen prices drop to historical lows [1][10]. - The DRC accounts for approximately 76% of global cobalt production, and the export ban is expected to shift the market from oversupply to a potential shortage [1][13]. Section 2: Company Performance and Inventory Management - The company is positioned as a leading player in the cobalt industry, with significant operations in the DRC [16][18]. - Short-term performance is bolstered by in-transit inventory, estimated at around 28,500 tons, which will allow the company to capitalize on price increases [2][34]. - The company’s projected cobalt production for 2024 is 114,000 tons, with a significant portion of this production benefiting from the current price environment [3][48]. Section 3: Long-term Profitability and Quota System - The anticipated implementation of a quota system is expected to raise the cobalt price center, with projections suggesting a potential increase in net profit per ton from 9,200 RMB to 51,300 RMB [3][44]. - The company’s cobalt production is expected to account for 50% of the DRC's total output, positioning it favorably to secure substantial quotas under the new system [3][42]. Section 4: Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 133.23 billion, 151.20 billion, and 170.24 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.62, 0.70, and 0.79 RMB [5][48]. - The projected PE ratios for the same period are 13X, 11X, and 10X, indicating a favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [5][48].