Milkground(600882) 长城证券·2025-03-19 02:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][23]. Core Views - The company has launched two significant incentive plans aimed at enhancing employee engagement and aligning interests between employees and shareholders, which is expected to improve governance and attract talent [10][14]. - The company anticipates a profit growth rate of over 50% in the next three years, supported by ambitious performance targets set in the incentive plans [3][10]. - The cheese segment is identified as a high-growth area within the dairy industry, aligning with consumer trends and national policy directions, suggesting substantial growth potential [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: The company's revenue is projected to grow from 4,049 million yuan in 2023 to 6,523 million yuan by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -16.2% in 2023, 17.7% in 2024, 18.0% in 2025, and 16.0% in 2026 [1][10]. - Net Profit Forecasts: The net profit is expected to rebound from 63 million yuan in 2023 to 325 million yuan by 2026, with significant growth rates of -53.9% in 2023, 79.9% in 2024, 82.7% in 2025, and 55.9% in 2026 [1][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to increase from 0.12 yuan in 2023 to 0.63 yuan in 2026, reflecting the company's recovery and growth trajectory [1][10]. - Valuation Metrics: The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 156.2x for 2023, expected to decrease to 30.5x by 2026, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [1][10]. Performance Targets - The incentive plans include specific performance targets for revenue and net profit, with minimum thresholds set for 2025 and cumulative targets for 2026 and 2027 [3][9]. - For 2025, the revenue target is set at no less than 50.40 billion yuan, with a net profit target of at least 1.89 billion yuan [3][9]. - Cumulative targets for 2025-2026 and 2025-2027 are also established, indicating a structured approach to performance evaluation [3][9].