Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report suggests that the negative factors have been fully priced in, and a turning point is approaching, with the fundamentals expected to exceed market expectations [1] - The company is recognized as one of the most comprehensive domestic cosmetics groups, with new products, brands, and channel expansions likely to drive revenue beyond expectations [1] - The adjustment in the "Da Bo" strategy and the increase in the proportion of non-box products are anticipated to improve net profit margins, leading to net profit exceeding expectations [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The market anticipates a decline in monthly sales data for the brand "Han Shu" on Douyin due to high base effects and the lack of new product launches [2] - However, the report argues that the decline in GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) is primarily due to a significant drop in the "Da Bo" proportion, which has decreased from approximately 40%-50% to 12% in recent months [2] - With the expected recovery in "Da Bo" rhythm and a lower base starting in Q2, monthly sales data for "Han Shu" is projected to turn positive [2] Product Development Capability - The market questions the company's ability to create high-priced single products, as previous successes were mainly in box sets [3] - The report asserts that the company has a deep understanding of the cosmetics market and has successfully launched single products, such as the "Newpage" cream, validating its capability to develop high-quality single products [3] E-commerce Operations - There are concerns regarding the company's operational capabilities on platforms like Tmall, given its previous success on Douyin [4] - The report highlights the management's strong learning ability and adaptability, noting improvements in Tmall operations and growing sales on other platforms like Pinduoduo and JD [4] Growth Drivers - The report identifies several growth drivers, including the performance of new products, the sales of major single products, and the expansion into new channels [5] - The expected sales growth from new products and brands is anticipated to lead to revenue and performance exceeding expectations [5] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 67.8 billion, 82.8 billion, and 97.6 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 62%, 22%, and 18% respectively [13] - The net profit is expected to reach 8.1 billion, 10.1 billion, and 12.4 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 75%, 25%, and 23% respectively [13] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's long-term development, supported by its strong brand influence and operational capabilities across various channels [13]
上美股份（02145）：更新报告：利空出尽，拐点将至，剔除达播因素基本面超预期