华利集团（300979）：Q4符合预期，期待25阿迪订单放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.006 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.841 billion RMB, up 20.01% year-on-year [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 6.495 billion RMB in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.87%, and a net profit of 999 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 9.20% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 20 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 2.334 billion RMB, with a payout ratio of approximately 61% [1]. Performance Analysis - The company sold 223 million pairs of athletic shoes in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.53%. The average selling price (ASP) saw a low single-digit percentage increase [2]. - The company’s supplier, Fengtai, reported a Q4 revenue of 5.001 billion RMB, a slight decline of 0.50% year-on-year, while the company continues to lead in revenue compared to peers [2]. - The company has initiated cooperation with Adidas in Q4 2024, with mass production expected to start in September 2024 [2]. - The company has expanded its production capacity with three new factories in Vietnam and is also diversifying its production base in Indonesia and China to mitigate geopolitical risks [2]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 15.36%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of new factory margins and increased management expenses [2]. Customer Trends - The company is optimistic about its growth potential, supported by new clients such as Adidas and On, which reported strong revenue growth in Q4 2025 [3]. - Adidas achieved a revenue of 5.965 billion euros in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.99%, while On reported a 36% increase to 607 million Swiss francs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected net profits of 3.841 billion RMB, 4.423 billion RMB, and 5.074 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are forecasted to be 24, 21, and 18 times [4].