Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 7.66, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is facing significant challenges, including a large impairment leading to a larger-than-expected loss. The average selling price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, impacting revenue projections [2][7]. - The report highlights strong financial support from the controlling shareholder, which is expected to help the company navigate through the current downturn in the market [7]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting anticipated losses in 2024 but a potential recovery in 2026 [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 37,541 million in 2022 to RMB 20,788 million in 2024, with a further drop to RMB 17,657 million in 2025 before recovering to RMB 23,255 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn negative in 2024, with a forecasted loss of RMB 3,936 million, followed by a smaller loss of RMB 248 million in 2025, and a return to profit in 2026 with RMB 1,534 million [3][15]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is expected to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year to around RMB 38,000 per ton in 2024, significantly below cash costs [7][8]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the power station and inverter segments at RMB 88 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 102 billion [9]. - The target price of HKD 7.66 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 times for 2026, with the power station segment contributing approximately HKD 6.62 per share [7][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 14.02%, with a 52-week high of HKD 11.66 and a low of HKD 6.30 [6]. - The average trading volume is reported at 3.98 million shares per day, indicating active trading interest [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices due to supply-side reforms and seasonal factors affecting electricity prices, which could lead to improved financial performance in 2026 [7]. - The company is expected to reduce production to mitigate losses, with a forecasted output of 10,000 tons in 2025 [7][8].
新特能源（01799）：大额减值导致预亏超预期，调出港股通或导致股价短期承压