Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 24 billion CNY and a net profit of 3.84 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.35% and 20.0% respectively, primarily driven by the new factory's production and improving worker efficiency [2][4] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 20 CNY per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 61%, which is an increase of 17 percentage points year-on-year, resulting in a dividend yield of 3% [2] - The company has initiated a partnership with Adidas, with mass production expected to start in September 2024, and has opened three new factories in Vietnam and one in Indonesia [3][4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is adjusted from 23.5 billion CNY to 24 billion CNY, while the net profit forecast is adjusted from 3.893 billion CNY to 3.841 billion CNY [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is adjusted from 3.34 CNY to 3.29 CNY, with forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remaining at 3.89 CNY and 4.48 CNY respectively [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 20, 17, and 14 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][8] Sales and Production Insights - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a sales volume of 22.3 million pairs and an average selling price (ASP) of 107 CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18% in volume and 2% in price [3] - The production capacity utilization rate in Q4 was approximately 100%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Position and Competitiveness - Despite concerns regarding inventory replenishment and profit margin impacts from new factory production, the company has opportunities for market share growth with major clients like Nike and Adidas, as well as additional contributions from brands like ON, NB, and REEBOK [4] - The company is expected to experience a capital expenditure peak in 2025 and 2026 due to new factory openings, which may temporarily affect profit margins but is anticipated to enhance long-term revenue potential [4]
华利集团（300979）：24Q4及25Q1受新工厂效率爬坡影响