BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) Soochow Securities·2025-03-12 12:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.98 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.34 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, which are expected to enhance growth potential [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 29.14 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 32.98 billion yuan in 2024A, and further growth to 56.29 billion yuan by 2025E [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 5.65 billion yuan in 2023A to 6.34 billion yuan in 2024A, and significantly to 12.36 billion yuan in 2025E [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.77 yuan in 2023A to 0.86 yuan in 2024A, reaching 1.69 yuan in 2025E [1] Production and Sales Insights - The company’s main product sales for 2024 are projected to be 1.14 million tons of PE, 1.16 million tons of PP, and 7.09 million tons of coke, reflecting year-on-year increases of 36%, 55%, and 2% respectively [7] - The first production line of the Inner Mongolia project, with a capacity of 1 million tons per year, is set to commence operations by the end of 2024 [7] - The company anticipates that the remaining two production lines in Inner Mongolia will be operational by Q1 2025, further boosting production capacity [7] Market and Pricing Trends - The average prices for PE, PP, and coke in 2024 are forecasted to be 7,089 yuan, 6,697 yuan, and 1,388 yuan per ton, with slight variations compared to the previous year [7] - The procurement prices for key raw materials such as gasification coal and coking coal are expected to decrease, alleviating cost pressures [7] Future Growth Projections - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 12.36 billion yuan and 14.08 billion yuan respectively, with a new projection for 2027 at 14.88 billion yuan [7] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 10.09 for 2025, decreasing to 8.38 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [1]