BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) Tebon Securities·2025-03-13 05:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Baofeng Energy is entering a phase of rapid capacity release, with significant growth in production and sales of polyethylene and polypropylene due to new capacity coming online [5][6] - The company reported a revenue of 32.983 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and a net profit of 6.338 billion yuan, up 12.2% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates continued improvement in profitability driven by the recovery of price differentials and the release of new production capacity [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 5.51%, 5.32%, and 5.64% over the last three months [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.708 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year but an increase of 18.0% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The production volumes for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke were 1.133 million tons, 1.173 million tons, and 7.039 million tons respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 35.0%, 56.7%, and 0.9% [5] - The average prices for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke were 7,089 yuan, 6,697 yuan, and 1,388 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of +0.1%, -0.9%, and -11.9% respectively [5] Capacity Expansion - The company has successfully launched its first series of 1 million tons of coal-to-olefins in Inner Mongolia, with further expansions planned for 2025 [5] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned for growth with ongoing projects in Xinjiang and Ningdong, which are expected to enhance production capacity significantly [5][6] Profitability Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 14.305 billion yuan, 17.022 billion yuan, and 18.927 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 125.7%, 19.0%, and 11.2% [6]