NHPM(601882) 华鑫证券·2025-03-12 06:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [3][8]. Core Views - The manufacturing industry is experiencing an upward trend, supported by policies that are releasing market demand. The PMI for China's manufacturing sector rose to 50.1% in October 2024, indicating expansion after a contraction period [3]. - The company is leveraging its technological advantages in high-end CNC machine tools to benefit from the industry's recovery and growth opportunities [3]. - Continuous investment in R&D has strengthened the company's technological moat, with R&D expenditure reaching 125 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a 27.1% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company has shown strong overseas expansion capabilities, achieving a CAGR of 62.3% in overseas revenue from 2017 to 2023, with overseas revenue reaching 590 million yuan in 2023, a 76.06% increase [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with a notable recovery in manufacturing demand driven by equipment upgrades and supportive policies [3]. - The machine tool industry saw a revenue of 1,040.7 billion yuan in 2024, despite a 5.2% year-on-year decline, indicating structural differentiation within the industry [3]. Company Performance - The company is expanding its production capacity, focusing on optimizing its manufacturing bases in Ningbo, Dalian, and Southern China, while also establishing overseas production capabilities [4]. - The company is enhancing its product offerings to include various high-performance CNC machine tools, which are aimed at replacing imports and improving market competitiveness [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 34.26 billion yuan, 39.17 billion yuan, and 44.95 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.03 yuan, 1.19 yuan, and 1.40 yuan [8][10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23.5, 20.3, and 17.2 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating potential for growth [8].