BABA(09988) 长江证券·2025-03-13 15:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The report highlights optimism regarding Alibaba's commercial opportunities arising from its strong commitment to technology investment and the integration of AI within its ecosystem. The acceleration of commercialization in its core business, particularly through intelligent advertising tools, is expected to enhance growth [2][4]. Financial Performance - For FY2025 Q3, Alibaba reported revenue of 280.2 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-on-year increase. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders reached 51.3 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 239% to 48.9 billion yuan [4][8]. Business Segments - Taotian Group: The group experienced a 9% year-on-year growth in CMR, driven by the full-quarter impact of basic software service fees and increased penetration of comprehensive promotion tools. EBITA grew by 2% year-on-year, indicating stable profitability during the commercialization acceleration phase [8]. - AIDC: Revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, although EBITA losses expanded to 5 billion yuan, primarily due to investments aimed at user acquisition during overseas shopping festivals [8]. - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with EBITA rising by 33%, driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services and significant increases in AI-related product usage [8]. Membership Growth - The number of 88VIP members reached 49 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 million and a year-on-year increase of 19 million, suggesting that the optimization of membership benefits is driving new buyer and order growth [8]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures for FY2025 Q1-Q3 were reported at 121 billion, 175 billion, and 318 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 259% in the latest quarter [8]. Profit Forecast - The report projects net profits attributable to shareholders for FY2025-2027 to be 139.6 billion, 157.6 billion, and 189.3 billion yuan, respectively [8].