BOC AVIATION(HK:02588) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-03-13 14:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of USD 2.56 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of USD 924 million, up 21% year-on-year, marking a historical high [5] - The core net profit, excluding the impact of the write-down of Russian aircraft, was USD 633 million, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase [5] - The company faces challenges in aircraft delivery due to supply chain issues, which may affect core rental income [6] - The aviation industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with a projected CAGR of 5.1% for passenger demand in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 20 years, significantly higher than North America and Europe [6] - The company benefits from a young fleet and a high remaining lease term, which positions it well to capitalize on the growth in the Asia-Pacific aviation market [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenues to grow from USD 2.56 billion in 2024 to USD 2.82 billion by 2027, with net profits projected to decline to USD 671 million in 2025 before recovering to USD 754 million by 2027 [6][7] - The financial forecast includes a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 due to anticipated delivery issues and rising funding costs [6] - The company’s net asset return is expected to remain stable, with a projected return on equity of around 10.2% from 2025 to 2027 [6] Company Insights - The company has a fleet of 709 aircraft, with 445 owned, achieving a utilization rate of over 99% [6] - The average age of the fleet is 5.0 years, significantly younger than the global average of 15 years, which enhances its competitive position [6] - The company sold 29 aircraft in 2024 and signed 118 new lease commitments, indicating active fleet management [6] - The company’s order book stands at 232 aircraft, reflecting strong demand despite delivery challenges [6]