SCIE(SH:600546) Datong Securities·2025-03-13 12:36Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious recommendation for the company [1] Core Views - The company focuses on refined management of its core coal business, enhancing efficiency and cost advantages [1] - The coal supply and demand are expected to reach a balance, with coal prices likely to stabilize [4][54] Company Overview - The company, Shanmei International, is primarily engaged in coal trading and production, backed by Shanxi Coal Group, which holds 57.91% of its shares [2][8] - It has transitioned from a coal producer to a comprehensive energy supply service provider, integrating production, transportation, and trading [2][11] Company Operations - The company's profitability remains strong, with a gross profit of 76.15 billion yuan and a gross margin of 34.67% in the first three quarters of 2024, ranking among the top in the industry [2][12] - The company implements a cost-leading strategy, with a focus on reducing expenses and improving cash flow efficiency [22][30] Business Strategy - The company has a diverse range of coal types and operates 14 active mines, with a gross margin of 58.85% in 2023 for its coal production business [3][37] - The coal trading business has seen a reduction in volume but an increase in quality, with gross margins rising from 1.94% in 2018 to 4.34% in 2023 [3][50] Future Outlook - Domestic coal supply growth is expected to slow, and coal imports may decrease due to high inventory levels and price pressures [54][58] - Demand for coal is anticipated to rise as the economy recovers, particularly in the power generation and construction sectors [62][64] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 281.53 billion yuan, 305.17 billion yuan, and 323.80 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.40, 1.57, and 1.73 yuan per share [4][6] - The target price for 2025 is set at 14.13 yuan, reflecting a cautious investment outlook [4][6]