CATHAY PAC AIR(00293) 华泰证券·2025-03-13 02:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cathay Pacific Airways [6][7]. Core Views - The net profit for 2H24 exceeded expectations, and the company is expected to maintain a historically high profit level. The 2024 operating revenue is projected at HKD 104.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 9.89 billion, up 1.0% [2][3]. - The report highlights strong passenger revenue and robust cargo demand, with 2H24 revenue reaching HKD 547.7 billion, a 7.6% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is expected to share profits with a dividend of HKD 4.443 billion, corresponding to a dividend yield of 6.3% based on the closing price on March 12 [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2H24, Cathay Pacific's operating revenue was HKD 547.7 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year, driven by a 5.3% increase in passenger revenue to HKD 325.8 billion and a 14.7% increase in cargo revenue to HKD 131.0 billion [3][4]. - The company recorded a net profit of HKD 62.8 billion in 2H24, a 13.6% increase, benefiting from a 9.5% decrease in Brent oil prices and one-time gains of HKD 6.4 billion [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 7.966 billion, HKD 8.483 billion, and HKD 8.224 billion, respectively, reflecting a slight increase in profitability expectations [5][19]. - The target price is raised to HKD 13.05, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.5 times for 2025, indicating a premium based on historical earnings [5][6]. Operational Metrics - The company is expected to maintain a high passenger load factor of 83.9% despite a slight year-on-year decrease, with unit revenue per passenger kilometer remaining strong [3][4]. - The report notes that the company is effectively managing capacity and increasing utilization rates despite fleet expansion limitations [3][5].