JD(HK:09618) Soochow Securities·2025-03-13 01:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (09618.HK) [1][28] Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 346.99 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 332.38 billion RMB. The Non-GAAP net profit was 11.29 billion RMB, up 34.21% year-on-year, also exceeding the expected 9.28 billion RMB [10][11] - The overall adjusted net profit margin improved to 3.25% from 2.75% in the same period last year, with the operating profit margin for JD's retail business rising to 3.3% from 2.6% [10][11] - The supermarket category showed a strong recovery, with product sales revenue of 280.98 billion RMB, a 14.0% increase year-on-year, exceeding the expected 266.81 billion RMB. Service and other revenues reached 66.01 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year, also above market expectations [11][18] - The company continues to enhance its competitive advantage, with logistics operating profit margin reaching 3.5%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [10][22] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Q4 2024 revenue was 346.99 billion RMB, a 13% increase year-on-year, and Non-GAAP net profit was 11.29 billion RMB, a 34.21% increase year-on-year [10][11] - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 3.25% from 2.75% in the previous year [10][11] Business Segment Growth - Product sales revenue in Q4 2024 was 280.98 billion RMB, a 14.0% increase year-on-year, driven by the recovery in the supermarket category [11][18] - Electronics and home appliances revenue reached 174.15 billion RMB, up 15.83% year-on-year, while daily necessities sales increased by 11.11% to 106.83 billion RMB [16][18] Cost Management and Efficiency - Q4 2024 operating costs were 293.87 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.92%, leading to a gross margin improvement of 1.1 percentage points to 15.3% [10][22] - Fulfillment expenses rose by 16.4% to 20.12 billion RMB, with a fulfillment expense ratio of 5.8% [22] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EPS (Non-GAAP) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 15.7 RMB and 17.0 RMB, respectively, with a projected EPS of 18.3 RMB for 2027 [1][28] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are expected to be 9.3, 8.6, and 7.9 times [1][28]