Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $8.2 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $390 million, up 43% year-on-year. The manufacturing segment generated $5.6 billion in revenue, an 11% increase year-on-year, while the retail segment saw a revenue decline of 10% to $2.6 billion [1][5] - Manufacturing business orders are robust, with a significant increase in shipments and a narrowing decline in average selling price (ASP). The ASP for 2024 was $20.3, down 5% year-on-year, while shipments reached 260 million pairs, a 17% increase [2][5] - The retail business is showing signs of improvement, with a smaller revenue decline in Q4 and effective cost management strategies leading to stable profit margins. Online retail revenue grew by 16%, with Douyin sales doubling year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of $8.2 billion and a net profit of $390 million. The manufacturing segment contributed $5.6 billion, while the retail segment accounted for $2.6 billion [1][5] - In Q4 alone, the company reported a revenue of $2.1 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 52% to $70 million due to increased operational costs and tax disputes [1][3] Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment's revenue for 2024 was $5.6 billion, with a shipment volume of 260 million pairs, reflecting a 17% increase. The ASP remained stable at $20.3 [2][5] - The manufacturing gross margin was 19.9%, with a capacity utilization rate of 93%. However, Q4 gross margin was pressured due to increased overtime and outsourcing costs, alongside a tax dispute in Indonesia [3][5] Retail Business - The retail segment's revenue for 2024 was $2.6 billion, down 10% year-on-year, but the decline in Q4 was only 2%. The company managed to improve its gross margin to 34.2% through effective discount management [4][5] - The number of offline stores decreased to 3,448, with same-store sales down 17.1%. However, online sales showed resilience, particularly on platforms like Douyin [4][5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.4 billion, $9.0 billion, and $9.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $454 million, $498 million, and $529 million [5][12] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 6.0, 5.5, and 5.2, with a dividend payout ratio of 69% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 10% [5][12]
裕元集团（00551）：点评报告：制造订单充沛收入如期增长，零售轻装上阵值得期待