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微博（WB）：4Q收入符合预期，AI赋能搜索业务
WBWB(WB) 华泰证券·2025-03-16 01:41

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of 12.92[7][18].CoreInsights−Thecompany′s4Qrevenuedecreasedby1.512.92 [7][18]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q revenue decreased by 1.5% year-over-year to 457 million, slightly below the consensus estimate by 0.5%. However, adjusted net profit increased by 39.6% to 107million,exceedingexpectationsby5.3107 million, exceeding expectations by 5.3% [1]. - Management anticipates an increase in advertising spending in the 3C, automotive, and e-commerce sectors in 2025, while the fast-moving consumer goods sector remains stable. The gaming and beauty sectors continue to face pressure [1][2]. - The company is focusing on building a content ecosystem and enhancing user engagement and quality, with daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) at 260 million and 590 million, respectively [1][3]. Summary by Sections 4Q Performance - 4Q advertising revenue fell by 4.4% year-over-year to 386 million, primarily due to a high base effect from 2023. Value-added services (VAS) revenue grew by 18.4% to 71million[2].−Theautomotiveandmobilesectorsshowedsteadygrowth,whilethebeautysectorcontinuedtostruggle.Theimpactofconsumerstimuluspoliciesisexpectedtograduallymanifestin1Q25[2].AIandContentStrategy−ThecompanyisdeepeningitsAIinitiatives,enhancingcontentdistributionefficiencyanduserengagementthroughfeatureslike"SmartSearch"andAI−generatedcomments[3].−TheintegrationofAIisexpectedtoempowerthecompany′ssearchandadvertisingbusiness,leveragingitsstrongcontentmoat[3].FinancialForecastandValuation−Theadjustednetprofitforecastfor2025and2026hasbeenloweredby4.171 million [2]. - The automotive and mobile sectors showed steady growth, while the beauty sector continued to struggle. The impact of consumer stimulus policies is expected to gradually manifest in 1Q25 [2]. AI and Content Strategy - The company is deepening its AI initiatives, enhancing content distribution efficiency and user engagement through features like "Smart Search" and AI-generated comments [3]. - The integration of AI is expected to empower the company's search and advertising business, leveraging its strong content moat [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been lowered by 4.1% and 3.7% to 484 million and 495million,respectively,mainlyduetotaxrateadjustments.The2027forecastisintroducedwithexpectedrevenueandadjustednetprofitof495 million, respectively, mainly due to tax rate adjustments. The 2027 forecast is introduced with expected revenue and adjusted net profit of 1.87 billion and 509million[4][13].−Thetargetpriceof509 million [4][13]. - The target price of 12.92 corresponds to a 6.5x PE ratio based on the 2025 adjusted net profit, which is at a discount compared to the global peer average of 21.3x due to liquidity factors and slower revenue growth [4][18].