Weibo Corporation (NASDAQ: WB ), a social media platform in China, put the final touches on FY2024 with the release of its Form-20F on April 15. The recently concluded fiscal was a year in which, among otherWelcome to my author's site. As an avid follower of SeekingAlpha, I take great interest in articles posted as the subject matter is often something that appeals to me. However, I will sometimes encounter an article that I might not agree with. My purpose is to present an alternative view to readers that ...

BEIJING, April 16, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Weibo Corporation ("Weibo" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: WB and HKEX: 9898), a leading social media in China, today announced that it has published its 2024 Environmental, Social and Governance ("ESG") Report. The ESG report comprehensively showcases the Company's value creation across various topics, such as social responsibility, technological innovation, information security, employee development, content ecosystem, and green operations, demonstrating Weibo's long-ter ...

Financial Performance - Revenues from VIEs accounted for 83.9%, 87.0%, and 86.2% of total revenues for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively[30]. - The consolidated total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, amounted to US$1,754.7 million, with third-party revenues contributing US$1,512.3 million[61]. - Total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2023, were $1,759,836 thousand, a decrease from $1,836,332 thousand in 2022, representing a decline of approximately 4.2%[62]. - Net income attributable to Weibo's shareholders for 2023 was $342,598 thousand, compared to $85,555 thousand in 2022, indicating a significant increase of 300.5%[62]. - The net income attributable to Weibo's shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2024, was US$300.8 million[61]. - The total amount of service fees paid by VIEs to the relevant WFOE for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024 was US$1,076.4 million, US$757.8 million, and US$769.0 million, respectively[55]. - The share of income from subsidiaries for 2023 was $529,304 thousand, compared to $305,672 thousand in 2022, reflecting an increase of 73.5%[62]. - The company had total shareholders' equity of $3,448,888 thousand as of December 31, 2023, compared to $3,533,783 thousand in 2022, indicating a decrease of 2.4%[65]. Regulatory Environment - The PRC regulatory environment regarding data security and privacy is rapidly evolving, posing compliance challenges[38]. - New anti-monopoly regulations in China may impact the company's operations and compliance requirements[39]. - The company may face penalties if it fails to comply with PRC laws and regulations, which could adversely affect its business[42]. - The company is subject to risks associated with the interpretation and enforcement of PRC laws, which could affect its operations[42]. - The company must file with the CSRC for future overseas offerings and listings, which may impact capital raising activities[44]. - The PCAOB has not issued any new determination regarding the inspection of accounting firms in mainland China and Hong Kong, which may affect the company's status under the HFCAA[47]. - The company does not expect to be identified as a Commission-Identified Issuer under the HFCAA after filing the annual report on Form 20-F[46]. - The Chinese government has implemented new advertising regulations effective May 1, 2023, requiring internet platform operators to prevent illegal advertisements and establish compliance mechanisms[101]. - The company is obligated to monitor advertising content for compliance with PRC laws, which could expose it to penalties if not adhered to[100]. - The company is subject to numerous cybersecurity regulations, which may lead to significant operational disruptions if compliance is not met[228]. Corporate Structure and VIEs - The company relies on contractual arrangements with VIEs for operations, which may not provide the same control as direct ownership[36]. - The company is classified as a "controlled company" under Nasdaq rules, allowing it to rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements[201]. - Current PRC laws restrict foreign ownership in internet-related businesses to a maximum of 50%, impacting the company's corporate structure[207]. - The company consolidates the operating results of its VIEs under U.S. GAAP, despite investors purchasing equity in a Cayman Islands holding company[207]. - The VIEs hold critical assets such as the Internet Content Provision License and Online Culture Operating Permit, which are essential for business operations[215]. - There are uncertainties regarding the interpretation and enforcement of PRC laws that could impact the viability of the company's corporate structure[209]. - The company may face adverse tax consequences if PRC tax authorities challenge the arm's length nature of its contractual arrangements[216]. - Shareholders of the VIEs may have conflicts of interest that could adversely affect the performance of contractual arrangements[214]. - The legal system in China presents uncertainties regarding the enforcement of contractual arrangements, which could disrupt business operations[211]. - The company may lose access to important assets if any VIE declares bankruptcy or undergoes liquidation proceedings[215]. User Engagement and Advertising - The company relies heavily on online advertising and marketing services for revenue generation, which poses risks if user engagement declines[78]. - Advertising and marketing services accounted for 87%, 87%, and 85% of total revenues in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, highlighting the company's reliance on this revenue stream[95]. - The effectiveness of the company's advertising services depends on user engagement and the size of its user base compared to competitors[105]. - The company emphasizes the importance of user-generated content and influencer contributions for maintaining user engagement and platform attractiveness[84]. - The company has introduced new functionalities and content formats, including Trends, Search, and live streaming, to enhance user engagement, but the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain[83]. - The company must adapt its advertising services to evolving user preferences, particularly the increasing demand for video content, to maintain revenue growth[98]. - The company is focused on developing new features and services to attract users and generate revenue, but new initiatives may not always succeed[117]. - The company has experienced revenue fluctuations due to external factors such as COVID-19, economic conditions, and competition, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth[94]. - The company continues to combat spam on its platform, which could negatively impact user engagement and operational costs[124]. - The company reported 590 million monthly active users (MAUs) and 260 million daily active users (DAUs) as of December 2024, indicating a potential decline in user growth rate due to market saturation[82]. Financial Obligations and Capital Needs - The company relies on dividends from PRC subsidiaries for cash needs, which are subject to restrictions under PRC laws, potentially impacting financial obligations[161]. - The company may need additional capital and financing, which may not be available on acceptable terms, potentially leading to increased debt obligations and operational restrictions[162]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company was in compliance with financial covenants related to its 2027 Loans, but failure to comply could lead to technical default[163]. - The company reported a net cash used in financing activities of $(1,029,439) thousand for the year ended December 31, 2024[67]. - The company experienced a decline in cash provided by operating activities from $(35,216) thousand in 2022 to $(84,940) thousand in 2023[68]. Legal and Compliance Risks - The company faces significant legal and regulatory risks related to data security and privacy, including potential penalties for non-compliance with various laws[131]. - The company may face liability for copyright or trademark infringement due to user-generated content on its platform, which could harm its reputation and financial condition[167]. - The company is required to verify the identities of all users who post on its platform, but has not been able to do so, exposing it to potential severe penalties[236]. - The company must conduct personal information protection compliance audits at least once every two years if processing data of over 10 million individuals[233]. - Regulatory investigations could lead to additional expenses and changes in business practices that may adversely affect the company's operations[239]. Operational Challenges - The company faces risks related to user misconduct on its platform, which could negatively impact brand image and financial performance[141]. - The company may face significant operational challenges if telecommunications and internet service costs rise, potentially affecting user growth and engagement[173]. - Service disruptions and infrastructure failures could hinder the company's ability to retain and attract users, impacting overall business performance[174]. - The company prioritizes product innovation and user experience over short-term results, which may adversely affect revenues and operating results[176]. - A prolonged economic downturn could materially affect the company's business and financial condition, particularly in advertising revenues[185]. Strategic Relationships - The relationship with SINA is crucial for the company's operations, and any reduction in support from SINA could lead to operational challenges[190]. - SINA has pledged 50% of its Class B ordinary shares in the company to secure a loan of up to $150 million, with a maturity date of March 13, 2028[196]. - If SINA defaults on the loan, it may lead to a change in control of the company, as the security agent could sell or foreclose on the pledged shares[198]. - Conflicts of interest may arise due to SINA's controlling ownership, potentially leading to decisions that favor SINA over the company's interests[203]. - The company has agreed to indemnify SINA for liabilities related to its business, which could create adverse interests between the two entities[204].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of $12.92 [7][18]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q revenue decreased by 1.5% year-over-year to $457 million, slightly below the consensus estimate by 0.5%. However, adjusted net profit increased by 39.6% to $107 million, exceeding expectations by 5.3% [1]. - Management anticipates an increase in advertising spending in the 3C, automotive, and e-commerce sectors in 2025, while the fast-moving consumer goods sector remains stable. The gaming and beauty sectors continue to face pressure [1][2]. - The company is focusing on building a content ecosystem and enhancing user engagement and quality, with daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) at 260 million and 590 million, respectively [1][3]. Summary by Sections 4Q Performance - 4Q advertising revenue fell by 4.4% year-over-year to $386 million, primarily due to a high base effect from 2023. Value-added services (VAS) revenue grew by 18.4% to $71 million [2]. - The automotive and mobile sectors showed steady growth, while the beauty sector continued to struggle. The impact of consumer stimulus policies is expected to gradually manifest in 1Q25 [2]. AI and Content Strategy - The company is deepening its AI initiatives, enhancing content distribution efficiency and user engagement through features like "Smart Search" and AI-generated comments [3]. - The integration of AI is expected to empower the company's search and advertising business, leveraging its strong content moat [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been lowered by 4.1% and 3.7% to $484 million and $495 million, respectively, mainly due to tax rate adjustments. The 2027 forecast is introduced with expected revenue and adjusted net profit of $1.87 billion and $509 million [4][13]. - The target price of $12.92 corresponds to a 6.5x PE ratio based on the 2025 adjusted net profit, which is at a discount compared to the global peer average of 21.3x due to liquidity factors and slower revenue growth [4][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Weibo, with a target price (TP) of US$14.50, down from the previous TP of US$15.00, indicating a potential upside of 39.2% from the current price of US$10.42 [3][6]. Core Insights - Weibo's 4Q24 results showed net revenue of US$457 million, largely flat year-over-year (YoY) on a constant currency basis, and non-GAAP net income grew by 40% YoY to US$107 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 9% due to effective operational expense control [1][6]. - The overall advertiser sentiment for FY25 remains mixed, with certain sectors like 3C and e-commerce increasing ad budgets due to national subsidy programs, while others like cosmetics and personal care are cautious [1][6]. - The forecast for Weibo's total revenue in FY25 is a growth of 2% YoY on a constant currency basis, with a reduction in FY25-26E earnings forecast by 3-5% due to a soft revenue outlook and increased AI investments [1][6]. Financial Performance - FY24 net revenue was US$1.75 billion, up 1% YoY on a constant currency basis, while advertising revenue in 4Q24 declined by 3% YoY to US$386 million [1][6]. - VAS (Value-Added Services) revenue increased by 18% YoY to US$71 million in 4Q24, driven by membership and game-related revenue growth [6]. - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) declined by 1% YoY to 590 million in December 2024, but the Daily Active Users (DAU) to MAU ratio improved to 44.1% [6]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25 is US$1.77 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to be US$481 million, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 27.2% for FY25, down from 27.3% in FY24, primarily due to increased investments in AI [6][12]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 79.0% for FY25, consistent with previous years [7][12]. Shareholding and Market Data - Major shareholders include Sina with 37.3% and Alibaba with 28.9% [4]. - The market capitalization of Weibo is approximately US$2.45 billion, with an average trading volume of US$13.4 million over the past three months [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at $14.5 based on an 8x P/E ratio for FY25E [1][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of $457 million for Q4 2024, showing a year-over-year growth of approximately 0% in constant currency, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Non-GAAP net profit increased by 40% year-over-year to $107 million, exceeding expectations by 9% due to effective operational expense control [1][2]. - For FY25E, the overall sentiment among advertisers remains mixed, with certain verticals like 3C products and e-commerce increasing ad budgets supported by national subsidy programs, while others like cosmetics and gaming are cautious in ad spending. The company forecasts a 2% year-over-year revenue growth in constant currency for FY25E [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company expects a slight revenue recovery in FY25E, projecting a total revenue of $1.77 billion, which represents a 2% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by growth in advertising revenue from 3C and e-commerce sectors [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is estimated at $481 million, with an adjusted EPS of $1.81. The report indicates a decrease in the non-GAAP operating profit margin to 31% for FY25E, down from 33% in FY24, mainly due to increased investments in artificial intelligence [4][14]. User Engagement Metrics - As of December 2024, the monthly active users (MAUs) decreased by 1% year-over-year to 590 million, while the daily active users (DAUs) to MAUs ratio improved to 44.1% from 43.0% in December 2023 [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced an annual dividend policy, planning to pay $200 million in dividends for FY24, which equates to an approximate 8% dividend yield [3][4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2024 reached USD 456.8 million, a decrease of 1% year-over-year, or relatively flat on a constant currency basis [10] - Total ad revenue for Q4 2024 was USD 385.9 million, a decrease of 4% year-over-year [11] - Value-added service revenues for Q4 2024 reached USD 71 million, an increase of 18% year-over-year [11] - For the full year 2024, total revenue was USD 1.75 billion, relatively flat year-over-year, or an increase of 1% on a constant currency basis [11] - Non-GAAP operating income for Q4 2024 was USD 136.2 million, representing a non-GAAP operating margin of 30% [11] - Full year 2024 non-GAAP operating income was USD 584.1 million, with a margin of 33% [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advertising and marketing revenues for Q4 2024 were USD 385.9 million, a decrease of 4% year-over-year [52] - Mobile ad revenue contributed approximately 94% of total ad revenue in Q4 2024 [53] - Value-added service revenue for the full year 2024 increased by 13% to USD 256 million [53] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, the automotive sector saw solid growth, driven by the increasing market penetration of new energy vehicles [23] - Ad revenue from the online game, cosmetics, personal care, and luxury industries showed a declining trend in Q4 2024 [24] - The government introduced stimulus policies in Q4 2024, positively impacting the digital product and e-commerce sectors [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on user growth, content ecosystem enhancement, and operating efficiency in 2025 [29] - There is an emphasis on integrating social products and revamping the recommendation system to drive user engagement [30] - The company aims to strengthen its competitive edge in the content ecosystem and enhance operating efficiency as key goals for 2025 [27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while some industries fell short of expectations in 2024, effective cost management allowed for stable operating income [27] - The company expects to see a rebound in macroeconomic conditions and consumer spending as government policies take effect [26] - Management remains cautious about the gaming industry due to a lack of major game launches in 2024 [94] Other Important Information - The company announced an annual cash dividend of USD 0.82 per ordinary share for the fiscal year 2022, totaling approximately USD 200 million [68] - The Board's capital allocation strategy focuses on balancing long-term growth with shareholder returns [106] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future strategy of AI applications - Management highlighted ongoing integration of multiple AI models and the development of products based on large language models, with a focus on enhancing search capabilities and monetization [72][73][81] Question: 2025 outlook for advertisement - Management expects positive impacts from national subsidy policies on automotive and e-commerce sectors, while remaining cautious about discretionary industries like beauty and personal care [86][88][96] Question: Shareholder return policy - Management emphasized a balanced capital allocation strategy that supports long-term growth while delivering value to shareholders, including the potential for share buybacks [102][106]

Weibo Corp (NASDAQ: WB) reported a fiscal fourth-quarter revenue decline of 1% year-on-year to $456.83 million, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $437.87 million. The Chinese microblogging social network company’s revenue remained flat Y/Y on a constant basis. Adjusted EPS of 40 cents beat the analyst consensus estimate of 39 cents.Also Read: Alibaba, Grab, Tencent, Meituan Gear Up For Growth As China Bets On Services To Revive EconomyWeibo’s advertising and marketing revenues decreased by 4% year o ...

BEIJING, March 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Weibo Corporation ("Weibo" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: WB and HKEX: 9898), a leading social media in China, today announced its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 and annual dividend. "We capped off the year with solid performance in the fourth quarter of 2024," said Gaofei Wang, CEO of Weibo. "In 2024, we have proactively adjusted our user strategy to focus on the acquisition and engagement of high quality users. ...

BEIJING, Feb. 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Weibo Corporation (Nasdaq: WB and HKEX: 9898), a leading social media for people to create, share and discover content, will announce its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, March 13, 2025. Following the announcement, Weibo's management team will host a conference call from 7 AM – 8 AM Eastern Time on March 13, 2025 (or 7 PM – 8 PM Beijing Time on March 13, 2025) to present an overview of the ...