AIA(HK:01299) HTSC·2025-03-15 07:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299 HK) with a target price of HKD 85.00 [7][8]. Core Insights - AIA's 2024 EPS is projected at USD 0.62, exceeding the previous forecast of USD 0.56, primarily due to better-than-expected investment returns. The new business value (NBV) is expected to grow by 18% year-on-year (constant exchange rate) [1][2]. - The report highlights strong growth in the Greater China market, with Hong Kong's NBV increasing by 23% and mainland China's NBV growing by 20%. Southeast Asian markets also show robust growth, with Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia's NBV increasing by 15%, 15%, and 10%, respectively [2][3]. - AIA's agent channel NBV grew by 16%, accounting for 79% of total NBV, with a high margin of 67.6%. The active agent count increased by 7% year-on-year, and the productivity of agents rose by 5% [3][4]. - The company has continued its stock buyback program, completing USD 7 billion of a USD 12 billion plan since 2022, with an additional USD 1.6 billion buyback announced. The expected dividend yield is 6% based on early-year prices, indicating high dividend characteristics [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AIA's total premium income is projected to reach USD 19.314 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of 10.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise significantly by 81.62% to USD 6.836 billion in 2024 [6][21]. - The report forecasts EPS growth from USD 0.62 in 2024 to USD 0.78 by 2027, with a consistent increase in dividends per share from USD 0.22 to USD 0.32 over the same period [6][21]. Valuation and Estimates - The target price of HKD 85 is derived from both book value and embedded value methods, with adjustments made to EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to USD 0.63, USD 0.70, and USD 0.78, respectively [5][12]. - The report indicates a slight reduction in NBV growth expectations due to investment volatility, but maintains a positive outlook on AIA's long-term growth potential [5][12].