安宁股份（002978）：24年净利承压，钛矿整体景气较好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 34.72 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024, achieving RMB 1.857 billion, up 0.06% year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 9.05% to RMB 851 million [1][4]. - The decline in net profit was attributed to a decrease in sales volume due to high titanium ore prices and production cuts [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong profit margin due to its control over scarce titanium resources, which supports its profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 498 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.85%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.10% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 169 million, down 24.9% year-on-year and 31.0% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The overall gross margin for the company decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 64.2% for the year [2]. Production and Sales - The company's titanium concentrate production slightly declined in 2024, leading to a 9.9% decrease in sales volume to 444,000 tons [2]. - Revenue from titanium concentrate fell by 4.5% to RMB 1.1 billion, with a gross margin decrease of 1.7 percentage points to 74.8% [2]. Market Outlook - The titanium ore market remains tight, with prices increasing by 7.9% since the beginning of the year, indicating a favorable supply-demand dynamic [3]. - The company has initiated projects to enhance titanium recovery rates and is expanding its production capacity, which may further increase its market share [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 1.03 billion, RMB 1.20 billion, and RMB 1.29 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 20%, 17%, and 7.6% [4][6]. - The estimated EPS for the same period is RMB 2.17, RMB 2.54, and RMB 2.74 [4][6].