CHINA RES POWER(00836) 交银国际·2025-03-14 11:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Power (836 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 23.10, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HKD 18.38 [1][2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion. This growth is partly attributed to the increase in market trading volume and a decrease in the fire power price difference [2][7]. - The target price adjustment reflects a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 22% and 21% respectively, due to anticipated limitations on wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices [2][7]. - The report highlights that the current P/E ratio of 6.8 for 2025 is below the historical average, suggesting that the market has partially priced in uncertainties regarding electricity prices and utilization hours for 2025 [7]. Financial Forecasts - The updated financial forecasts for the company are as follows: - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.132 billion, with a slight decrease in the forecast for 2025 to HKD 105.084 billion, reflecting a 6.8% reduction from previous estimates [6][15]. - Operating profit for 2024 is estimated at HKD 21.965 billion, with a decrease in 2025 to HKD 21.947 billion, indicating a 19.2% drop from prior forecasts [6][15]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be HKD 12.727 billion, with a forecasted decline to HKD 13.954 billion in 2025, representing a 21.9% reduction from earlier predictions [6][15]. Operational Metrics - The company’s installed capacity is projected to increase significantly, with total capacity expected to reach 68,507 MW by 2024 and 78,507 MW by 2025, with a growing share of renewable energy [8]. - The report anticipates that the proportion of renewable energy in the total installed capacity will rise from 48% in 2024 to 53% in 2025 [8]. Valuation - The valuation breakdown indicates that the thermal power segment is valued at HKD 16.837 billion, while the renewable energy segment is valued at HKD 102.778 billion, leading to a total valuation of HKD 119.6 billion [9].