JD(HK:09618) Haitong Securities·2025-03-14 11:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [4][11]. Core Views - JD Group's 4Q24 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, and Non-GAAP net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 34.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company has initiated a new share repurchase plan allowing for up to 5 billion USD in buybacks over the next 36 months [4]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the "trade-in" program for consumer goods, which is expected to continue into 2025 [4]. Financial Analysis - In 4Q24, JD Group's revenue reached 347 billion yuan, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase, while Non-GAAP net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-on-year [7][10]. - The active user base and shopping frequency continued to grow at double-digit rates, with significant contributions from third-party merchants [7][10]. - Direct sales revenue for 4Q24 was 281 billion yuan, with home appliances and 3C products increasing by 15.8% and fast-moving consumer goods by 11.1% year-on-year [7][10]. - Service revenue for 4Q24 was 66 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with platform and advertising revenue growing by 12.7% [7][10]. Major Financial Data and Forecast - The projected revenue for JD Group is expected to grow from 1,088 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,467 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [8][14]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to increase from 24.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 54.5 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 132.82% in 2024 [8][14]. - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization range for 2025 between 627.5 billion and 704.1 billion HKD, translating to a target share price of 197 to 221 HKD [11][12].