Nvidia(US:NVDA) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-14 15:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for NVIDIA is "Buy" with a target of over 20% relative return within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported record revenue of $39.3 billion for Q4 FY2024, a year-over-year increase of 78% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $38.2 billion [1]. - The data center business achieved a record revenue of $35.6 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of $34.1 billion, driven by strong sales of the Blackwell architecture [2]. - The company anticipates continued growth in computing power demand, supported by advancements in multi-modal models and inference optimization with the Blackwell architecture [4]. Revenue and Profit Performance - For Q4 FY2024, NVIDIA's GAAP gross margin was 73%, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations, while net profit reached $22.1 billion, exceeding expectations of $19.8 billion [1]. - GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.89, reflecting an 82% year-over-year increase and a 14% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. Product and Capacity Dynamics - The initial production of Blackwell has led to a Non-GAAP gross margin of 73.5%, with expectations to recover to 75% by the end of FY2026 as production capacity ramps up [3]. - Blackwell's quarterly production capacity reached 15,000 GPUs, deployed across 350 manufacturing nodes, with major cloud service providers already utilizing Blackwell clusters [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-2028 have been raised to $228 billion, $335 billion, and $374.2 billion respectively, with GAAP net profit projections adjusted to $124.9 billion, $175 billion, and $200 billion [6]. - The company expects the demand for computing power to continue to rise, driven by advancements in AI and cloud computing [4]. Business Segment Growth - The networking segment is expected to recover growth in the next quarter, with significant revenue increases from Spectrum X and NVLink Switch, which are being adopted by major cloud service providers [5]. - Enterprise AI revenue has nearly doubled year-over-year, driven by increasing demand for model fine-tuning and GPU-accelerated data processing [5].