Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The implementation of fertility stimulus policies is expected to enhance the birth rate and benefit the leading infant formula company [1][2] - The company is positioned to benefit from industry demand recovery and increased market concentration, with anticipated revenue growth in 2024 [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting EPS of 0.42, 0.46, and 0.50 RMB for 2024-2026, respectively [4] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at 7.40 HKD, with the current closing price at 5.93 HKD, indicating significant upside potential [8][7] Industry Outlook - The number of newborns in China is projected to increase by 52,000 (+5.8%) in 2024, reaching 9.54 million [2] - Local governments are rolling out child-rearing subsidies, which may be replicated in other provinces, positively impacting birth rates and infant formula consumption [2] Company Performance - The company is expected to achieve positive revenue growth in 2024, driven by improved inventory management and stable pricing of core products [3] - The gross margin is projected to improve due to declining raw material costs and effective cost control measures [3] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 1.35 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a high dividend payout ratio of 72% [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 20,838 million RMB in 2024 to 22,775 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 4.10% [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 3,832 million RMB in 2024 to 4,493 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 8.13% [6] - The company’s EPS is projected to rise from 0.42 RMB in 2024 to 0.50 RMB in 2026 [6]
中国飞鹤（06186）：生育政策加码，婴配粉龙头有望迎来利好