Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported its best historical performance for the year 2024, achieving a revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan, up 95.2% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in net profit is attributed to the simultaneous rise in both volume and price of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, along with a decrease in raw material procurement prices compared to the same period in 2023 [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from high aluminum prices due to low global inventory and rigid domestic supply, with further price increases anticipated alongside a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a rise in green aluminum usage in the new energy sector [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved electrolytic aluminum sales of 5.837 million tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and alumina sales of 10.921 million tons, up 5.3% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price for electrolytic aluminum was 17,550 yuan per ton, a 6.6% increase year-on-year, while alumina's selling price rose by 33.6% to 3,420 yuan per ton [2]. - The gross margin for electrolytic aluminum improved to 24.6%, up 7.2 percentage points year-on-year, and for alumina, it reached 35.4%, an increase of 24.3 percentage points [2]. Cost Structure and Market Dynamics - The decline in coal prices has led to improved power generation costs, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum segment [3]. - As of February 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is around 44 million tons, nearing the capacity ceiling of 45 million tons, indicating a rigid supply situation [3]. - The demand recovery is anticipated to tighten supply further, supporting high aluminum prices in the long term [3]. Future Projections - The report projects that the company will achieve net profits of 21.4 billion yuan, 24.2 billion yuan, and 26.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.7, 5.9, and 5.3 times [4][5]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated aluminum enterprise, with significant cost advantages and potential for rapid growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners [4].
中国宏桥（01378）：历史最佳业绩，一体化成本优势凸显